Rain likely Tuesday, but dry Memorial Day ahead

If you wished for the rain Central Texas has seen this month to cease, Mother Nature might finally be on your side: Expect smooth sailing with dry and mostly sunny skies through Memorial Day Weekend, forecasters said, but only after a round of morning storms on Tuesday.

Storms will roll through the area from the Hill Country and hang around the Interstate 35 corridor during the morning commute — from 5 a.m. until about noon or 1 p.m. — before heading east, University of Texas meteorology lecturer Troy Kimmel said. The National Weather Service puts the chance of rain at 70% between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m., but Kimmel expects less than a half-inch of rainfall.

Storms could produce damaging winds blowing at 60 mph with a slight possibility of hail, Kimmel said, but some areas might not see any rain at all.

"I could be wrong, but I just expect the most active storm pattern to be to our north," he said.

Temperatures will reach a high of 89 degrees under cloudy skies during the day. South winds blowing 5 to 15 mph will become westerly breezes in the afternoon with gusts as strong as 25 mph, forecasters said. At night, temperatures will remain above a balmy 72 degrees under partly cloudy skies, the weather service said.

After the storms clear out, Austin will be dry and mostly sunny through Memorial Day, which is a relief considering how much rain the city has seen this month. As of Monday, a total of 6.88 inches of rainfall had been recorded in May at Camp Mabry. The city normally gets only about 2.53 inches of rain by May 20, according to climate data.

Austin-Bergstrom International Airport has gotten 7.41 inches of rainfall this month, compared with the normal 2.52 inches by May 20, according to weather service records.

"We've been wet all spring long, and now the pattern is changing to a summertime pattern," Kimmel said. That is not to say all chances of rain are gone until the fall, though, he said. 

High temperatures for the rest of the week will hang in the high 80s and lows will be in the 70s, forecasters said. Skies will be partly sunny during the day and partly cloudy at night, according to the weather service's extended forecast.

"On a holiday that we normally get a lot of rain, in some cases anyways, it's nice to see a pretty dry weather pattern ahead and a fair amount of confidence with that happening," Kimmel said.