Will Democrats spoil GOP's House speaker plan?

Retiring state Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, owed his 10-year run as House speaker to the support of Democrats. Frustrated by Straus — who, along with his lieutenants, shelved bills popular with social conservatives like legislation that would have restricted transgender bathroom use — the House Republican Caucus devised a plan to circumvent Democrats in selecting the next speaker.

But, after Democrats won a dozen seats from Republicans on Election Day — increasing Democratic numbers in the House to levels not seen since the 2009 legislative session, when Straus was first elected speaker — the GOP plan could unravel.

Democrats would need just nine Republicans to join them in electing a moderate in the Straus mold, rejecting the preferred, presumably more conservative Republican candidate to be chosen in a private meeting of GOP House members Dec. 1.

"It takes a small number of people to get together and effectively repeat 2009," Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said, referring to how Democrats banded with a faction of Republicans to first elect Straus, who announced last year he wouldn't seek re-election.

Four members are running to succeed him:

• Rep. Dennis Bonnen, R Angleton.

• Rep. Travis Clardy, R-Nacogdoches.

• Rep. Drew Darby, R-San Angelo.

• Rep. Eric Johnson, D-Dallas.

Jones said moderate Republicans would prefer Darby or Rep. Four Price, R-Amarillo, who had been a speaker candidate but told the Quorum Report on Sunday that he was dropping out and endorsing Bonnen. Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, also told the Quorum Report Sunday that he would leave the speaker's race. On Monday, Rep. Tan Parker, R-Flower Mound, dropped his bid.

Bonnen, second in command in the House, is a popular conservative member who could unify the caucus, Jones said.

Bonnen has "demonstrated as speaker pro tempore that he could work well with the Straus wing of the caucus and has not shown himself shy or reticent to stand up to (Republican Lt. Gov.) Dan Patrick," who presides over the Texas Senate, Jones said.

Chris Turner, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said the next speaker will be elected on a bipartisan basis, and Democrats will continue to chair committees next year.

"It's absolutely our expectation that that continues to be the case," Turner said.

Democrats want a speaker who will support school finance reform and improving access to health care, among other things. Generally, he added, "all Democratic members want to see a speaker who's going to preside over the House in a bipartisan manner."

Contents from an email Turner sent to Democratic House members that circulated Friday revealed that 56 Democrats had signed a pledge to "vote together for, and work with any number of our Republican colleagues to elect a speaker who will preside over the House on a bipartisan basis." Turner confirmed to the Statesman on Friday that the email was sent but said that he would not discuss internal caucus communications.

United front

Historically, speakers have won the gavel by building bipartisan coalitions, said Sherri Greenberg, a clinical professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at UT Austin and former member of the House. The Republicans' plan to effectively select the next speaker on their own is not the norm, she said.

"If you go this route, you risk having a more divisive and even less bipartisan Legislature," she said.

In the Dec. 1 meeting, Republican members will cast secret ballots. The winner must have support of two-thirds of those voting, with the lowest vote-getter dropping out in subsequent balloting. Once down to two nominees, the winning threshold would drop to 60 percent if a victor does not emerge after a few rounds of voting.

The Texas Republican Party asked all GOP House candidates this year to commit to voting for the caucus' nominee when the House elects a new speaker in January, at the start of the coming legislative session. Eighteen Republicans who won election didn't respond.

Texas GOP Chairman James Dickey told the American-Statesman in a statement that officials are pressing Republican members to hold a united front.

"So many have agreed to support the nominee and will continue to encourage their colleagues to unify because the consequences of doing otherwise would be disastrous," Dickey said. "Texans want and deserve a speaker who will enable the Legislature to fight for property tax reform, improved education, and continued strong economic growth in our great state.”

Talking to Democrats

The GOP plan isn't stopping at least one Republican candidate from seeking support from Democrats.

Jason Modglin, Darby's chief of staff, told the Statesman that Darby has met with Democrats but is "equally pursuing" the caucus' support.

"While he is seeking the support of Democrats, the first hurdle is the Republican caucus," Modglin said.

Johnson, whose ascendance to speaker as a Democrat would be most improbable, said Friday he's meeting with Republicans.

"I am talking to members of both parties," he said. "I have been for a while. I would not still be in this race if I didn't believe that I had a path to victory. There is a path to victory that I think got better after Election Day."