Will Whole Foods locations explain a blue wave?

WASHINGTON — For some Republican congressional incumbents, proximity to a Whole Foods grocery store might be unwelcome.

Of the 46 GOP-held districts considered vulnerable to Democrats, 63 percent are either home to a Whole Foods store or within a 20-minute drive of a Whole Foods store, according to an analysis by U.S. House expert David Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Previous elections saw demographic groups that were pivotal in swinging results: Soccer moms helped re-elect President Bill Clinton in 1996, and NASCAR dads helped re-elect President George W. Bush in 2004. Will the Whole Foods shopper help explain a blue wave in 2018, if it comes to pass?

The presence of a Whole Foods store suggests a concentration of the demographic that's been turning away from the GOP in many parts of the country: college-educated women.

"Suburban Whole Foods are excellent markers of where Democrats are gaining strength," Wasserman said.

All but one of the 34 Whole Foods locations in Texas are in the four biggest metro areas: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The other store is in El Paso.

The two districts featuring the state's closest congressional races are home to plenty of Whole Foods shoppers: the 32nd Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, contains three Whole Foods stores, and the 7th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, is home to four Whole Foods stores, with a fifth just outside that district. Sessions is facing Democrat Colin Allred, and Culberson is facing Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. Both Democrats have out-raised the incumbents by wide margins.

The state's most competitive district over the past several elections is the 23rd Congressional District, home to one Whole Foods store, in San Antonio. U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, is seeking a third term against Democratic challenger Gina Ortiz Jones. The district, however, has seen close races because of its majority Hispanic population, not necessarily because of a high concentration of suburban college-educated women who might be abandoning the GOP.

The six Austin-area Whole Foods stores are in four Republican districts, with two rated by national, nonpartisan oddsmakers as competitive, but with Republicans favored to win.

The 21st Congressional District, drawn as a GOP stronghold and held by retiring, longtime U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, is home to the flagship Whole Foods in downtown Austin, as well as a store in Southwest Austin and one in San Antonio. It also encompasses six Hill Country counties with reliably conservative voters. Political newcomer, military veteran and entrepreneur Joseph Kopser, a Democrat, has made the district "borderline competitive," said Wasserman, against longtime GOP aide Chip Roy.

Democrat MJ Hegar, an author and veteran running in the 31st Congressional District, home to one Whole Foods store, in Cedar Park, has attracted national support, out-raising U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock.

The 10th Congressional District is home to two Whole Foods stores, but U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, isn't seen as vulnerable. The district is dominated by outer Houston suburbs lacking a Whole Foods presence, and it stretches across rural areas between Austin and Houston.

"Given Whole Foods’ high prices and epicurean snob vibe, it wouldn’t surprise me that in GOP districts they are concentrated in areas with large numbers of upper middle-class and middle-class college-educated Anglo women, many of whom in the past have voted Republican but who today are repulsed by Donald Trump and alienated by the Kavanaugh confirmation process," said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, referring to the divisive Senate debate over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Not everyone is buying the Whole Foods effect as an electoral phenomenon.

Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist and director of the Lone Star Project, a political action committee, said, "That's just silly."

While acknowledging the importance of women in the 2018 elections, he said the core of the Democratic Party is African-American. "That is the building block of our party," he said. "This Whole Foods notion falls into the category of 'fair-minded Anglos.'"

Several calls to the company's Austin headquarters went unanswered.