Waiting game for Democrats mulling Cornyn challenge

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is preparing for re-election in 2020 as if he were running scared — hiring top staff, raising money early and traveling around Texas touting his accomplishments.

“We are taking due note of what happened in 2018. I’m getting ready,” said Cornyn, who is seeking a fourth term and has nearly $5.8 million cash on hand according to federal election reports.

After fellow Texas Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz received a scare from Democrat Beto O’Rourke last year, Cornyn isn’t taking anything for granted. But, with O’Rourke eying the presidency, Julián Castro, the former San Antonio mayor and Obama Cabinet official, already in the presidential race, and his brother U.S. Rep. Joaquín Castro, D-San Antonio, serving as his campaign manager, the three Texas Democrats seen as most likely to run a strong statewide campaign seem likely to steer clear of Cornyn. That leaves a bench of potential challengers with little name recognition or losing campaigns to their credit, or both.

“The message of the 2018 midterm elections was ‘you’d better be prepared,’” Cornyn told reporters this week. “Texas is evolving. It’s no longer a reliably red state.”

No Republican has come forward to challenge Cornyn either. Cornyn headed off his most potentially potent GOP primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who endorsed Cornyn in December.

Democrats who are said to be considering a Senate run: MJ Hegar, an Afghanistan war hero and author who came within 2.9 points of toppling U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, and North Texas farmer Kim Olson, who lost by 4.9 points to Republican state Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller.

Another potential candidate, according to party activists is former state Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, who suffered a lopsided loss in the 2014 governor’s race.

On Valentine’s Day, Cornyn’s campaign launched an online fundraising appeal citing Hegar and Davis as possible candidates.

But some Texas Democrats see the party's best chances for success in a reprise of O'Rourke's Senate campaign. O'Rourke hasn't publicly mentioned a Senate run as a possibility — he told Oprah Winfrey last week that he'll decide whether to run for president by the end of the month — but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., met with O'Rourke last week to discuss a possible challenge to Cornyn, according to Politico.

“It’s very significant that Schumer is talking to Texans,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a political action committee, who said the Democratic leader had spoken to other potential candidates. “It signifies that Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee think Cornyn is vulnerable — and they’re right.”

A survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found in a hypothetical matchup, 47 percent of registered Texas voters support Cornyn and 45 percent prefer O'Rourke, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

O'Rourke, who left his U.S. House seat at the end of the year, has spent some of the past six weeks traveling outside Texas — he is speaking in Madison, Wis., Friday and Chicago on Saturday — suggesting that he's seeking to build a national profile.

This week, O'Rourke garnered attention from the media — and President Donald Trump, who singled out O'Rourke for belittlement at a political rally in El Paso. O'Rourke spoke at a counterrally, sharing national television split screens with Trump.

“From all outward aspects, he seems to be contemplating a run for president and not Congress,” said Sherri Greenberg, clinical professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas.

But the wait is having an impact.

“Right now, Texas Democrats are in a holding pattern until they know what Beto O’Rourke is going to do: run for president, run for the Senate, head into the wild in Alaska, or something else,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor.

“Even a decision by Beto to run for president would not clear the way entirely, since if he ended up dropping out before September or October, he could always throw his hat into the senatorial race,” Jones said. After doing so well in 2018, Jones said, “Beto has effectively earned the right of first refusal” for the Democratic Senate nomination.

For his part, Cornyn gave a preview Wednesday of a potential line of attack, telling reporters that the Democratic presidential hopefuls embracing “Medicare for all” would wipe out private insurance and the “new Green deal” of environmental programs would “require all of us, I assume, to become vegans.”