Texas Democrats report big money haul

Democratic congressional candidates out-raised their Republican rivals in eight GOP-held Texas districts in the third quarter, including two in Central Texas.

In the 31st Congressional District, which includes most of Williamson and Bell counties, Democrat MJ Hegar outraised U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, by $1.3 million and in the 21st Congressional District, which includes parts of Austin and Hays County, Democrat Joseph Kopser raised nearly $300,000 more than Republican Chip Roy. In both races, however, the Republican candidates reported having more cash on hand.

The federal election reports for the three months ending Sept. 30, which were due midnight Monday, reveal an energized donor base that gave Democratic challengers in the three most competitive Texas congressional races a $1 million advantage — each — over incumbents:

• 23rd Congressional District: Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones raised $2.4 million to the $1.4 million that U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, raised in a district that spans 800 miles from San Antonio to El Paso. Ortiz Jones, a former intelligence official, has $1.2 million cash on hand, and Hurd has $1 million.

• 32nd Congressional District: Democrat Colin Allred raised $2.3 million to the $1.3 million raised by U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, in the Dallas-area district. Sessions has $2.6 million cash on hand; Allred, a Dallas attorney and former NFL player, has $1.9 million cash on hand. 

• 7th Congressional District: Democrat Lizzie Fletcher took in $2.2 million to the $800,000 raised by U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, in the Houston-area district. Fletcher, a Houston lawyer, reported $1.5 million cash on hand to Culberson's $1 million.

"It reflects more than fundraising prowess," said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic political action committee. "There's an underlying excitement about the candidates, and it tells you there's some momentum that may not show up in polls.” Underfunded Democratic candidates in the past petered out as voting approached.

Other races showed unexpected Democratic fundraising strength:

• 22nd Congressional District: Democrat Sri Preston Kulkami raised $678,000 to $319,000 raised by U.S. Rep. Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land.

• 6th Congressional District: Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez raised $218,000; Republican Ron Wright raised $213,000.

• 36th Congressional District: Democrat Dayna Steele raised $291,000 to the $183,000 for U.S. Rep. Brian Babin, R-Woodville.

"There is a level of unbridled enthusiasm among Texas Democrats and national Democrats watching Texas that has propelled Democrats attempting to flip GOP-held seats to record levels of campaign donations," said Rice University political science professor Mark Jones.

GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak, chairman of the Travis County Republican Party, said the Republicans could make up fundraising gaps through their national committees and super PACs, which support candidates but are independent of the campaigns. "There's more than one way to skin a cat," he said.

University of Texas polling expert James Henson said that, for Democrats, "The money is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success. If the (Beto) O'Rourke Senate campaign can help some of those candidates increase Democratic turnout, it may well help some Democrats turn the tables on some heretofore safe Republican seats. This is especially true in areas where the districts were drawn to benefit Republicans, but which have been subject to rapid population growth and a degree of demographic change since the lines were drawn almost a decade ago."

Republicans are polling ahead of Democrats in most of the eight races. With the exception of the 23rd Congressional District, which has been the only competitive district in recent elections, the districts were drawn by the Republican-led Legislature to elect Republicans. Still, in a close race, a cash advantage can make a difference, experts said.

"A major infusion of money can make a major difference in a congressional race," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor. "Campaign managers have a Cadillac plan and a Cavalier plan in their desks — one plan for a major fundraising haul and one for a modest one. Cash on hand can buy a last-minute television advertising blitz, a few more mailers, a major social media push, and dozens more paid door knockers."

Sonia Van Meter, an Austin Democratic consultant who is advising the Ortiz Jones race, said of the Democratic cash rush: "I think it is historic. It's the national pulling of the pendulum more to the center."