Texas stands to lose clout in House

Maria Recio American-Statesman correspondent
U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, R-Austin, addresses a Texas Capitol rally for gun control on April 20. [RALPH BARRERA / AMERICAN-STATESMAN]

WASHINGTON — Lloyd Doggett knows about wave elections.

The Austin Democrat was first elected to Congress in 1994, when Republicans upended 40 years of Democratic control, leaving him in a backbencher role. He's stayed there for all but four years of his 24-year tenure in Washington.

But Doggett's days in the minority are numbered if, as strategists in both parties suggest is likely, Democrats seize a majority of House seats on Tuesday.

Heading into Election Day, 29 Republicans are in races rated as tossups, and another 18 Republicans are in races in which the Democratic candidate is seen as having an advantage, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Only one Democrat is in a tossup race, and just two Democrats are in races in which the Republican has an advantage.

(In Texas, 10 Republicans are in races rated as competitive, with two — U.S. Reps. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, and John Culberson, R-Houston — in tossups. All 11 Democratic seats are expected to remain in Democratic hands.)

Democrats need to pick up two dozen seats to claim the House majority.

But what would it mean for Texas Democrats, who hold less than a third of the state's 36 congressional seats?

Based on seniority, there likely would be just one committee chair from Texas — U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas — who would lead the Science, Space and Technology Committee. Doggett, who serves on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, is in line to head a subcommittee, as are other Texans, including Sheila Jackson Lee of Houston, Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Al Green of Houston.

"Texas hasn’t had this modest amount of clout in Washington since before Sam Rayburn was speaker of the House," said Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston, referring to legendary Texas powerhouse lawmaker whose first tenure as House speaker began in 1940. Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said Democratic control of the House would make Texas “a second-tier delegation."

'Good for Texas'

Texas Republicans hold seven committee chairmanships, including the powerful House Ways and Means Committee headed by U.S. Rep. Kevin Brady of The Woodlands.

But to Democrats eager to change the priorities in Congress, the idea of the state losing clout is not a concern. "It's good for Texas and for the country because none of the chairs did a thing for Texas," said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic political action committee. "Texas benefited very little. Hurricane Harvey funding was little and late."

Doggett told the American-Statesman: "I believe we will take the House. The question is, by enough votes for an effective majority?"

Doggett, a longtime member of the Ways and Means Committee, said he expects to be chairman of either the Tax Policy Subcommittee or the Health Care Subcommittee. He's weighing the advantage of each but said he's more likely to choose the tax-writing panel, where he is the top-ranked Democrat.

"I think it's going to be significantly different," Doggett said of how things would change under Democratic control. "There will be vigorous review of the Republican tax bill and a focus on the nation's debt."

Doggett's first task, he said, will be to lead a motion to force the release of President Donald Trump's tax returns. Trump has refused to release them, saying he is under IRS audit. The filings could cast light on his business dealings, charitable giving and wealth.

Republicans are certain to appeal the action to the Supreme Court.

Impeachment?

If Democrats take control, another early order of business will be selecting a speaker. That is expected to be Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader from California who was House speaker from 2007 to 2011, though she could face another challenge from U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio.

"There's a strong desire in the caucus for a young person," Doggett said. "I'm waiting until after the election. I'm committed to her unless there's a better alternative," he said of Pelosi.

Pelosi has tried to tamp down talk of impeaching Trump by House members — an effort led by Green — and it's unclear how Democrats would proceed if they take control.

Doggett said the Democrats will be more of a watchdog, especially if the Republicans keep control of the Senate. "We'll be exercising our oversight responsibility," Doggett said. "We have to have some pushback and checks and balances on Trump."