Texas House battleground in suburbs

If Texas Democrats make gains this election, they most likely will come in down-ballot races, where a dozen GOP-held state House seats are seen as vulnerable. Those districts are concentrated in the booming suburbs of Austin and Dallas, where population growth and demographic changes have altered the electoral landscape.

Austin's suburbs are home to thousands of new arrivals, both from outside the area and from Austin, in search of more affordable housing and, in some cases, better schools. Many of the new suburbanites vote more like Austinites than longtime residents of places like Buda and Cedar Park, according to Texas political scientists.

The shift was evident two years ago, when Hillary Clinton edged President Donald Trump in 10 Texas House districts won by Republicans, including one suburban Austin district. Seven were in the Dallas area, and two in Houston.

This year, amid high turnout during early voting and with Democrats motivated by Trump and a popular Democratic candidate at the top of the ticket — U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke — party leaders are optimistic they can make a significant dent in the Republicans' majority in the Texas House, which stood at 40 seats in the last legislative session.

Rice University political science professor Mark Jones, who studies Texas politics, identified a dozen battleground House districts, all held now or most recently by a Republican. Of those, he considers six toss-ups. In the other six, he gives the GOP candidates a slight edge.

Republicans hold a significant money advantage in those contests, however, according an American-Statesman analysis of campaign finance data. In all but one of the 12 races, Republican candidates on average raised twice as much money as their Democratic rivals this year.

Still, Texas Democratic leaders are eying as many as 25 GOP seats they say Democrats can win — districts either won by Clinton or where Trump won by 10 points or less. That would give the party a majority in the House, an unlikely outcome on Tuesday night.

Jones predicts Democrats will pick up three to 10 GOP seats.

The more the better for Democrats' chances of influencing who becomes the next Texas House speaker, Jones said.

"It could strengthen the Democrats," he said, adding, "the more Democrats there are, the more credible the threat (moderate Republicans) defect" to support a less conservative speaker.

In the Austin area, four districts are on Jones' list:

• District 45 (leans Republican), where state Rep. Jason Isaac, R-Dripping Springs, isn't running for re-election.

• District 47 (toss-up), where state Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin, is seeking a fifth term.

• District 52 (toss-up), without representation since June, when state Rep. Larry Gonzales, R-Round Rock, stepped down.

• District 136 (toss-up), where state Rep. Tony Dale, R-Cedar Park, is seeking a fourth term.

Hays County

Republican Ken Strange, a Wimberley school board member and director of Wimberley EMS, said his campaign’s internal analysis of early voters show he’s leading in District 45, though he didn't provide a margin.

The district is dominated by Hays County, one of the fastest-growing counties in the country and home to the 39,000-student Texas State University, where early voting was expanded after high interest and a threat of a lawsuit.

Early voting turnout in the county topped 46 percent.

Trump defeated Clinton in Hays County by less than a percentage point — 600 votes — but in rural Blanco County, the other half of the two-county district, Trump won by 3,000 votes. In the March primary, 13,000 Republicans and 11,000 Democrats voted in the district.

Erin Zwiener, Strange's Democratic opponent, said she has been targeting the fast-growing areas of the district, including the Interstate 35 corridor, where she said there are 20,000 more registered voters than two years ago.

“We’re one of the most educated districts in Texas. We’re young both because of the college and young families in Buda, Kyle and San Marcos. We have a high Hispanic population and a growing African-American population. All the ingredients are here” for a Democrat to win, Zwiener, an author and educator, said Friday.

Travis County

Across Travis County, 368,000 ballots were cast in early voting, just slightly below the 2016 early voting total and far exceeding the 2014 total.

Vikki Goodwin, the Democratic candidate for District 47, the western portion of the county, predicted a close race. She said she’s been targeting more conservative areas, including Lake Travis, Lakeway and Lago Vista.

Workman, who has made a name for himself by fighting Austin ordinances he considers too restrictive, is the only Travis County Republican in the Texas House.

The district was nearly evenly split between Trump and Clinton. And during the March primary, Democratic voters in the district outnumbered Republican voters, 16,018 to 15,317.

Williamson County

Early voting totals in Williamson County slightly exceeded the total in 2016, and turnout there was second-highest among the state's 30 largest counties.

“We know that the Beto movement has definitely motivated the Democrats to come out," said Cynthia Flores, the Republican running in House District 52, which encompasses much of Round Rock, Hutto and Taylor. "But we have an incredible team in Williamson County, and Gov. Greg Abbott has really supported our county and has been very well received. I feel very positive.”

Abbott’s campaign has given Flores, a social services manager, $67,000 for political advertising.

Her Democratic opponent, James Talarico, who previously led an education nonprofit, said his campaign’s analysis shows Democrats turning out who typically stay home for midterm elections.

“I think it’s a dead heat,” Talarico said. “If we elect good, decent people to office this year it will be because there’s a coalition between Democratic voters, independent voters and Republicans who are willing to stand up to their party.”

In House District 146, encompassing Cedar Park and Leander, Dale is facing Democrat John Bucy, a small-business owner, for a second time.

When he first ran against Dale in 2014, Bucy lost by 13 percentage points. Bucy became chairman of the Williamson County Democrats in 2016 and focused on building the party's structure. The effort paid off with nine Democrats elected to city and county offices, he said.

In 2016, Dale won re-election by 10 points, but Clinton defeated Trump in the district. Bucy said Clinton's performance and recent victories for the local party show that a Democrat can win the district.

For his part, Dale said he's seeing enthusiasm among Republican voters. He said on the Texas Insider podcast Oct. 27: "What you hear from the left is they want to say the demographics are changing in Williamson County. And that's just code to say, ‘Hey, Republicans, don't show up and vote,’ because they want to win."