3 Central Texas GOP congressmen targeted

WASHINGTON — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put down its marker for 2020 and the big bet is on Texas.

The arm of the Democratic Party charged with electing Democrats to the U.S. House, fresh off winning control of the chamber in the midterm elections last November, has targeted six GOP-controlled congressional districts in Texas, including three in Central Texas, among 33 districts nationally.

The three targets in the Austin area: the 10th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin; the 21st Congressional District, represented by U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, and the 31st Congressional District, represented by U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock.

All three faced tight contests in November in an election that saw narrow GOP victories elsewhere in the state and two defeats: longtime U.S. Reps. John Culberson, R-Houston, and Pete Sessions, R-Dallas.

The close elections, all in districts drawn by the GOP-controlled Legislature to elect Republican candidates, were either evidence of Texas beginning to turn a shade of purple, what political observers have been predicting for some time, or the long coattails of Beto O'Rourke, who came within 2.6 percentage points of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, the closest any statewide Democrat has come to winning in a generation.

Former Austin city attorney Mike Siegel, who lost to McCaul by 4.3 points, has already announced he's running again. Days later, McCaul, who is the top-ranked Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he would seek re-election.

Joseph Kopser, an Austin entrepreneur and Iraq war veteran who lost to Roy by 2.6 points, said he hasn't decided whether to run again, and Afghanistan war veteran and author MJ Hegar, who lost to Carter by 2.9 points, said she's “looking at all options” as she prepares to make an announcement Tuesday about a new role in the health care industry.

The other three GOP-held Texas seats the Democrats see as prime opportunities for pickups are the 22nd Congressional District outside Houston, won by 4.9 points by Pete Olson of Sugar Land; the 24th Congressional District in North Texas, won by 3.1 points by Kenny Marchant of Coppell and the perennially competitive 23rd Congressional District that runs for 800 miles along the U.S.-Mexico border, won by fewer than 1,000 votes by Will Hurd of Helotes.

The districts are becoming more diverse and are home to the sort of college-educated suburbanites drawn to the Democratic Party in the age of President Donald Trump.

“Democrats in 2018 saw an opportunity in suburban seats but missed a play in some suburban districts,” said Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “They will not miss again in 2020.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had mostly held back in deep red Texas. The early involvement of the group means the resources of the party will be brought to bear in districts once considered safe Republican territory — from candidate recruitment to putting campaign staff on the ground to touting candidates to big Democratic donors and political action committees.

“The earlier you are, the more you can support candidates and raise money,” said Austin political consultant Bill Miller, who works for both Democrats and Republicans but has no ties to the congressional races. “The one thing that money doesn’t buy is time. By signaling early what races they’re focused on,” he said, Democrats are giving candidates, supporters and the electorate, more time to assess what they want to do.

“Suburban Texas is demographically changing in a way that positions Democrats for wins in typically suburban areas,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Houston. “These districts are no longer the red belts to the blue urban core. Suburbs today are swing areas and Republicans are nervous about a wide scale rejection of President Trump.”

Trump won Texas by 9 points, but national polling in January had him with an average unfavorable rating of 55.3 percent, according to RealClearPolitics, a nonpartisan website.

“Having Donald Trump on the ballot will continue to be a liability for all six of these Republicans, with Carter, Marchant, McCaul and Olson in particular needing to ramp up their game and campaign as if their lives depended on it (like Will Hurd does every election) in order to have a good chance of re-election in 2020,” said Mark Jones, professor of political science at Rice University.

Democratic turnout also will depend in part on who runs against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who will be seeking a fourth term.

Republicans hold 23 Texas congressional seats and Democrats 13. If all goes according to plan for the Democrats, the delegation would tilt Democratic after the 2020 elections.

“In all of those districts, the margin between coming close and winning is moving the non-aligned voters,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic political action committee.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct that Mike Siegel is no longer working as an attorney for the city of Austin.