Fresh off close losses, Texas Democrats look to 2020
WASHINGTON — Austin entrepreneur Joseph Kopser received more votes than any other Democratic candidate for Congress in Texas — 167,020 — but it still wasn't enough to defeat Republican Chip Roy.
Still, the fact that his race, and several others won by Republicans, were close, gives Democrats cause for optimism in 2020.
Democrats knocked off GOP incumbents in two congressional races in Texas, Colin Allred in the Dallas area and Lizzie Fletcher in Houston, part of a national rout in which Democrats flipped more than three dozen seats. But Democrats' surprising performances, even in defeat, in several Texas districts long thought to be out of reach for Democratic candidates has garnered the attention of the national party, eager to win a larger House advantage in two years, when turnout will be higher with the presidency on the line.
Six Democrats came within 5 points or fewer in six Texas races, including three districts in Central Texas where Republicans traditionally win easily.
Democrats now hold 13 of 36 Texas congressional seats.
"This is about persistence. This is about a long-term strategy. We did not make it in those races now, but we are further along than ever before," Tom Perez, Democratic National Committee chairman, told reporters after the election.
Perez, political experts and several Texas Democratic congressional candidates credited Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke for energizing the electorate and driving up turnout. Whether O'Rourke will be on the ballot again in 2020 could affect outcomes down the ballot.
O'Rourke "inspired so many young people and new voters and established a baseline that is far higher," Perez said.
O'Rourke, who lost to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, by 2.6 percentage points, is said to be pondering a run for president (along with as many as three dozen other Democrats), but has told his inner circle he is not tempted to run again for the Senate in 2020, when U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is up for re-election.
"Is Beto on the ballot for Senate or president?" Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said of 2020. "That's a major question. That improves prospects for Democrats."
But Kopser and other Democrats said there was more going on than an appealing candidate at the top of the ticket boosting down-ballot candidates with him.
"The Beto bump was very real, but I believe out of all the districts of the 36 congressional districts in Texas, we not only benefited from the Beto bump, but we added to it," said Kopser, who ran in the 21st Congressional District, represented for three decades by retiring U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio. The district includes liberal enclaves of Central and South Austin, as well as parts of San Antonio and a swath of the deeply conservative Hill Country.
Kopser, an Army veteran who appealed to some GOP voters as a centrist who voted for Ronald Reagan, garnered 37,000 more votes than the district's Democratic candidate in 2016, narrowing a 73,000-vote gap to less than 10,000. He lost by 2.8 points.
Like several Democrats running in districts drawn by the Republican-dominated Legislature to elect Republicans, Kopser out-fundraised his GOP opponent.
"As for 2020, I’m not sure my exact plans, but I plan to stay engaged to fix the problems I see in front of us," he said.
31st Congressional District
In the 31st Congressional District, which encompasses all of Williamson County and most of Bell County, U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, a former state district judge, had won election eight times by at least 20 points.
MJ Hegar, an Afghanistan war hero who successfully fought for women to serve in combat roles, upended that narrative.
She released a viral video telling her life story and aggressively attacked Carter for what she called his anti-military record — multiple votes to raise his own salary but against giving a raise to service members — and his opposition to the bipartisan Violence Against Women Act. And, like Democratic candidates across the country, she made affordable health care a centerpiece of her campaign.
Hegar also proved a formidable fundraiser, amassing more than double what Carter raised. And she got help from the likes of actress Natalie Portman, who campaigned with her.
She came within 3 points of Carter and beat him in his home county. Carter won just 50.6 percent of the vote districtwide.
"What made the race so close was the fact that for too long people here in this district have only been presented with one real option. I grew up here, so I understand the values of this district and ran my campaign with an intentional effort to connect with voters in a transparent way," Hegar said in emailed answers to questions from the American-Statesman. "We closed the gap by talking to people and being available to them for honest, transparent conversations, which is not something we're accustomed to here."
She said O'Rourke helped her campaign and she helped his: "We turned out voters who cast their ballots for him, and vice versa."
"I am not ruling out running in 2020, and I do have several options that I'm weighing at the moment. I’m actively considering the ways in which I can best continue serving my country," Hegar said.
Carter, for his part, said he was grateful for the opportunity to continue to serve in Congress.
"Liberal Californians and New Yorkers poured millions of dollars into my district to buy this race, and while I may have been outspent by several million dollars, I believe the 67,000 doors my team and I knocked on and the 100,000 phone calls we made really resonated with Central Texans. I look forward to continuing my work to take care of veterans, our military and my constituents in DC," Carter said in a written statement to the Statesman.
10th Congressional District
Perhaps the biggest Election Day surprise was U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul's close call in the 10th Congressional District, which stretches from Lake Travis to the Houston suburbs.
McCaul, R-Austin, the House Homeland Security Committee chairman, had skated to re-election by 18.9 points two years ago but this time won by just 4 points over Mike Siegel, a first-time candidate who was on leave from his job as an attorney for the city of Austin. McCaul won just 26.9 percent of the vote in Travis County.
"I think it was multilayered," Siegel said of the reasons for his strong performance. "I raised more than $500,000. There were changing demographics with 25 percent of the district in Austin and Travis County."
And he suggested that McCaul wasn't used to competition: "There hadn't been a substantial challenge since 2008."
"The Beto effect," he said, "was that excitement level he brought to the campaign. He definitely was a significant factor."
“I’m very open to running again," Siegel said. "I’m back at City Hall, and a lot of people are reaching out to me, encouraging me to run again."
Siegel, along with Kopser, benefited from Austin's population growth, which helped level the playing field in districts drawn to minimize Austin's voting clout. Since the latest version of the 10th Congressional District was drawn after the 2010 census, thousands of people have moved into new apartments along North Lamar Boulevard, Burnet Road and at the Domain. Likewise, the 21st Congressional District has gotten new residents in high-rises downtown and West Campus, along with apartment complexes on South Lamar Boulevard.
Hegar tapped into the diverse, fast-growing suburbs of Round Rock and Cedar Park, home to one-time Austinites in search of more affordable housing who brought their politics with them.
Matt Angle, Democratic strategist who runs the Lone Star Project political action committee, sees the districts that came close as tilting more in the Democrats' favor. "The common theme is that all have significant urban/suburban bases that are changing," he said.
